The $85,000 Brandon plan implies $850,000 eligible sales. It is not a fixed salary: changing sales or his share changes commission. The default reduces the earlier $125,315.64 annual cushion by $85,000 to $40,315.64. Installer wages are already inside direct job costs; do not add them to the $8,500 management schedule. Historical checks/ACH may already contain Brandon payments; this forward model does not add commission to actual cash records.

Spring Haven $658/month advertising and Google Claude $240/month subscription are user labels; matches/overlap with the observed pool are unresolved. Do not add them again automatically. Vehicle costs, taxes, fees, missing cards and unresolved payments may add costs. Any material/payment fee outside the gross-margin assumption should be reflected in a lower margin or a reviewed incremental allowance, not a second fee on actual Alibaba charges. Read the evidence and gaps.

Default is an illustrative all-indoor pipeline with no supplied opening backlog. It is a startup-style net-movement scenario, not established steady state. Change the mix or add dated opening receipts/payables below. Lead time is sale-to-install; final-payment delay is additional.

All new sales are modeled on the start day of each week; blank weekly overrides use annual sales ÷ 52. Enter 0 to explicitly model no sales that week. Weekly overrides change only the 13-week cash calendar; annual economics retain the annual sales input. Model generates only 13 weeks of new sales and carries their later obligations/collections beyond the horizon.

Types: receipt (remaining pretax backlog collections), material, installer, card (opening card principal/payment due), commission (unpaid opening commission), other. Amounts are positive. Enter actual due dates; rows may extend past the horizon. No new-sales deposit is inferred for opening backlog. Opening commissions must be entered explicitly, including any differences you want to compare between policies. Enter each bill once: do not enter both opening card balance and its installment unless both are independently due. Record opening balances and remaining principal through the full schedule; undated/unscheduled balances are missing.

Even with that confirmation, this is a conditional daily-closing model: actual intraday order, holds, cancellations, clawbacks, holiday shifts and unexpected expenses are not modeled. “For now” public access remains unchanged; edits stay in this browser session and are not saved to the shared site. Download the planning report to retain assumptions.

$1,000 list less 25% discount = $750 pretax sale; commission = $75. Sales tax is a pass-through liability, excluded from revenue and commission. A hypothetical 7% is not a tax determination.

On a $1,000 Brandon sale with a 65% pretax deposit, direct job-cost reserve is $420. Full-on-sale commission $100 leaves $130 of deposit toward overhead. As-collected commission pays $65 from deposit, leaving $165, then $35 on final collection. Both pay $100 lifetime commission and leave $480 lifetime postcommission contribution. Deferring $35 changes timing, not profit. Direct-cost reserve is not the actual material/installer payment date.

Full-sale commission every two weeks is the user’s tentative description, not validated payroll policy. Anchor, earned trigger, whether deposits must clear, cancellations/refunds and clawbacks need staff confirmation. $85,000 ÷ 26 = $3,269.23 is an average, not an actual fixed check. Brandon reportedly started around April 2025; no earnings history is fabricated. As-collected is a policy comparison only.

September 14 commission planning update: Brandon commission was excluded from the original model below. At $1.25m sales, 68% Brandon share and 10% commission, annual commission is $85,000, contribution is 51.2%, annual remaining is $40,315.64, and conditional break-even is $1,171,258.52/year ($97,604.88/month). Sections 8–9 below retain the BEFORE-Brandon comparison and must not be used as the updated forward budget. Use the editable Planning section for updated economics and 13-week policy comparisons. Open updated planning model

BlindGuyz cash flow & break-even review

Analysis prepared September 11, 2026 • Bank: December 2025–August 2026 • Capital One: through September 9, 2026 • Public report

The bank account nearly consumed its cash buffer, but these records cannot prove a single actual operating break-even or establish a loan amount. The observed cash decline is real; the company-wide profit calculation remains conditional because payroll/installation allocations, other cards, receivables, inventory and account 7055 are not reconciled.

The conditional baseline is NOT a verified actual expense figure or a complete overhead ceiling. It excludes unresolved checks/ACH and several potentially operating categories. It replaces neither the source ledger nor the earlier scheduled spending chart. The bank balance above is as of August 31, not current available cash.

1. Coverage and cash reconciliation

Nine bank statement periods form a continuous chain from the November 28 opening balance through August 31; December’s first posted activity is within the requested date window. Month-end dates can be the last business day. All 11 supplied bank extraction controls (including Oct/Nov outside scope) reconcile. Five card PDFs match extracted counts/net amounts. This verifies supplied records, not bank-account completeness or card statement balances. September has only Capital One activity, so no September company cash balance, bank outflow or full revenue figure is inferred.

Check: opening $33,420.92 + receipts $1,296,758.75 − payments $1,311,873.44 = ending $18,306.23. Every closing balance equals the next opening. Net decline is $15,114.69 (45.23% of the opening buffer). Average gross bank payments were $145,763.72 per month. These payments include supplier costs, payroll-like payments, debt/card settlement and transfers; they are not overhead.

September 1–9 separately contains 32 posted card rows: 31 activity entries netting $4,260.65 and one $10,000 card payment received. Their signed net is −$5,739.35; it is not company cash flow or profit. Pending snapshots remain outside those numbers. The $8,500 September payroll amount on the main chart is only a one-Friday schedule estimate.

2. What came in—and why it is not verified sales

Two transfers from 7055 provided $25,000: January 21 $10,000 (T00803, January, 2026 (1).pdf p2) and April 20 $15,000 (T01034, May, 2026.pdf p3). Transfers out to 7055 totaled $13,783.10, leaving $11,216.90 net support from that account. Removing both directions leaves a $26,331.59 cash decline in the remaining activity, still NOT operating profit because other financing, personal and timing items remain.

Gross receipts after the $25,000 transfers and $295.48 identifiable bank debit-card returns are $1,271,463.27. Less $26,183.23 returned-deposit/deposit-correction debits gives a provisional collections proxy of $1,245,280.04 across nine months ($138,364.45/month). Deposit origins, redeposits, loan proceeds and customer/job links are unverified. Neither this proxy nor $1,296,758.75 gross credits is booked sales. The $1.25 million annual sales scenario is a separate assumption.

3. Cash timing: the statement endpoints hide pressure

The lowest reconstructed daily closing was $5,662.61 on July 30—less than one $8,500 scheduled noninstaller payday, before installers or suppliers. August ended at $18,306.23, equivalent to 2.15 such paydays if there were no other obligations or receipts. This is historical context, not current runway. The worst weekly net draw was $23,814.35 in the week ending February 27.

Daily balances are reconstructed from posted transactions and validated to each monthly closing; they are not available-balance or intraday minimum records. Holds, pending items and posting order can change usable cash. Weekly groups end Friday; the final August partial group can be labeled September 4 and contains only August 31 activity.

4. Card repayment matching and double-counting bridge

27 proposed one-to-one Capital One matches total $250,374.02. Matching required an exact cent amount, an explicit Capital One bank description, and a card payment within seven calendar days, preferring the closest date. Four selections had multiple candidate payments (repeated $5,000/$10,000 amounts); those pairings need confirmation. This is amount/date correspondence, not proof of source-bank routing from the card export. The proposed matches use each row once and the total is not an extra cost.

Capital One cash paid from Truist totals $256,042.02; $5,668 remains unmatched. Supplied card payments total $252,317.71 through August plus $10,000 on September 2. The unmatched August card payment is $1,943.69. Other-card repayments total $11,774.32, but underlying Amex/Citi/Chase/Sams purchases and principal/interest are not supplied. Credit limits are not cash. Opening/closing card debt and payment due dates cannot be derived from these exports.

This net pool is NOT expenses: it retains unresolved checks/ACH, transfers, taxes, financing and returned deposits. Removing repayments does not recover expenses on missing cards. Bank debit-card refunds of $295.48 are separately inside bank inflows. Rewards ($4,587) and fee waiver ($555) are distinct from purchase refunds; all card negative activity totals $6,505.94. The same $282.61 Ryder amount appears as a bank return and a card credit: do not assume duplication or two economic refunds without merchant/account reconciliation.

5. Every bank dollar accounted for

The following bridge allocates all 775 positive bank entries exactly once. Check-image observations are a separate analytical layer; original transaction IDs, amounts and source classifications remain unchanged. Observed payee names do not establish tax treatment or job-cost allocation.

Bridge total: $1,311,873.44, exactly equal to all bank outflows. There is no residual excluded bucket. No Coinbase-described activity appears in the Dec–Aug scope; prior Oct/Nov investment transfers are outside it. This does not prove all scoped outflows are business use. Tax payments ($6,052.02) and financing ($238.07) remain separate; principal/interest and tax type are unknown.

6. Check images and actual staff-payment evidence

All 53 check images in the December and August statements were visually reviewed and matched by statement, check number and cent amount: $84,065.50. This is a bounded two-month review, not all 263 checks. The other 210 checks total $350,935.93 and still need image review. No handwritten name was projected onto other checks merely because the amount matched.

Generic ACH settlements total $334,003.45 across 139 entries. Seventy-five are $3,000 ($225,000); 37 are $1,000 ($37,000); six are $1,500 ($9,000). Those amounts resemble supplied schedules, but no beneficiary names appear in the bank descriptions. Do not label them Zach/Dave/Elaine/Sarah/Micah without the ACH batch detail.

The $8,500 weekly schedule covers only Zach $3,000, Dave & Elaine combined $3,000, Sarah $1,500 and Micah $1,000. Installers are additional. December–August has 39 Fridays, giving $331,500 scheduled management/admin/marketing cash obligations if rates were unchanged. That schedule is not added to actual checks/ACH in the cash reconciliation. It is used only as a forward scenario, replacing—not stacking on—the unknown actual management component. The illustrative installer crew rate is $80/hour total for all three, or $160–$240 for a 2–3-hour visit; no annual labor expense is inferred without actual hours/jobs.

New user clarification: James and Albert (called AJ) are installers. Their 18 observed December/August checks total $29,346 and are likely installer payments, not verified wages for every entry. Wayne is another/current installer; exact identity and historical dates are unknown. The user does not recognize Marshall. Cardholder fields show Wayne H. ending 4323: 36 posted purchases totaling $2,803.28 from December 12 through April 23. Marshall H. ending 7116 is a distinct label: 27 posted purchases totaling $2,303.14 from May 21 through September 4. James C. labels ending 5135/2521 show 74 posted purchases totaling $6,563.34; Albert C. ending 1756 shows 43 totaling $5,220.01. These counts include September card activity, not wages or added job costs. Source text supports the labels, but not full identities, historical employment dates, or a Wayne-to-Marshall mapping. Literal original transaction descriptions do not contain these names; the evidence is in the cardholder field.

7. Actual-supported overhead evidence—not a complete fixed-cost budget

The strict user-confirmed service-purpose component is office trash: $2,302.72 over nine months ($255.86/month). The larger $75,594.27 pool is an evidence-backed set of overhead-like merchants/memos, still conditional on business use, fixed/variable behavior and period allocation. It is not a rigorous lower bound on recurring overhead if some charges are personal or nonrecurring. The pool excludes direct product suppliers, installation candidates, all generic ACH, other checks, generic Apple billing, fuel, vehicle costs, processing fees, tax and financing. Omitted items must be addressed before borrowing or setting a sales target.

Other excluded observed categories include fuel $11,205.78, vehicle service $4,225.08, generic Apple/Google $1,765.83, processing/bank fees $5,672.70, tools/materials $16,239.80, shipping $2,624.12 and professional/membership $5,026.72. Some belong in direct job cost, others overhead, and some may be personal/capital. Adding them all to overhead would be as misleading as ignoring them. Unresolved check/ACH dollars can contain management pay, installers, suppliers, rent, distributions or reimbursements.

8. Break-even: formula, evidence and uncertainty

At the user’s target, materials PLUS installation consume 42% of sales; the remaining 58% is used as the contribution available for overhead. This works only if all other variable costs are included in that 42% or separately deducted from 58%. Gross margin is not verified by dividing unmatched purchases by bank deposits. Customer receivables, inventory, job completion and supplier timing are missing.

This conditional construction avoids adding actual unknown payroll to the schedule. It is not transaction-reconciled actual break-even, and is not guaranteed conservative: rent or staff-related charges could overlap observed categories, while many costs are omitted. The actual records support the pool and cash bridge; only resolved payees/job roles can turn it into a defensible complete fixed-cost baseline.

Unresolved sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Define U as additional recurring overhead AFTER removing direct material/installer costs, transfers, tax/debt principal and payroll/rent already included: monthly break-even = ($49,973.70 + U) ÷ 0.58. Every extra $1,000/month of U requires $1,724.14/month more sales. If bank/card fees fall outside the target margin, a 1 percentage-point variable-cost adjustment makes the denominator 57%, not 58%. No Alibaba 2.99% is added to actual card amounts. A hypothetical fee on every dollar of the 42% direct-cost budget would consume 1.2558 margin points; that is an upper-style scenario, not a known fee base.

The earlier staff-list arithmetic remains mathematically valid only as that scenario: $47,772.33/month × 12 = $573,268; ÷ 58% = $988,393.10/year (or $82,366.09/month). At $1.25m sales: $725,000 gross contribution − $573,268 listed overhead = $151,732/year, $12,644.33/month before omitted items/taxes. At $100,000 monthly sales it leaves $10,227.67. It was never an actual reconciled break-even.

At $1.25m sales, the revised conditional construction leaves $125,315.64/year, or $10,442.97/month before U, taxes and any missing variable costs. Thus that monthly amount is the maximum additional overhead headroom in this particular scenario—not a loan-payment recommendation.

Supplier/job-cost candidates total $374,605.99 across nine months: $222,711.98 named product-supplier charges, $133,742.55 tentative Samadi wires and $18,151.46 American Home Design checks. The nine-month 42% direct-cost budget at $1.25m annual sales is $393,750, leaving only $19,144.01 before installers/other direct costs IF all purchases belonged to that same sales cohort. They do not have verified cohort matches, so this is a warning to reconcile job margins, not proof of a margin shortfall. The James/Albert checks total $29,346 and are now likely installer costs because the user confirmed their roles; individual payment purposes remain pending. If those and all supplier candidates belonged to the same cohort, they would total $403,951.99, already $10,201.99 over the illustrative nine-month direct-cost budget before any additional installation/material costs. Cohort timing prevents treating this as a verified gross-margin result. Marshall’s $12,240 is still unidentified and is not assigned to Wayne.

At 350–400 jobs annually, $1.25m implies average tickets of $3,571.43–$3,125. The conditional break-even would require average tickets of $2,954.11–$2,584.85 at those job counts. Those historical job counts are user-reported, not verified for the current year.

9. Deposit and completion timing scenarios

Assumptions only: new sales collect 65% upfront; 35% is collected in full at installation; no bad debt, cancellations or delay after install; steady sales; 58% contribution after all direct materials and installation. The 35% final-payment convention is unverified in these records. No product-dollar mix or existing backlog was supplied.

Reserving all 42% direct cost is a conservative allocation of deposits, not an assertion that the cash is paid immediately. Supplier card payments and installer payments occur on their actual due dates. In a steady, mature pipeline, new deposits plus prior-cohort finals can equal sales even with long lead times. A startup, growth step, delayed installations or late customer finals creates a bridge need. Existing backlog finals may reduce it.

These are separate all-product scenarios, not an invented weighted average. The reserve-gap column starts with no backlog and no opening cash, spreads overhead evenly by week, reserves all direct costs at sale, and waits the stated lead time for first finals. Actual Friday payroll/card due-date spikes can be larger. Uncollected 35% is not itself the required reserve: deposits already cover 42% direct costs and contribute 23% to overhead. Each extra week before finals adds about $6,003.55 to this modeled startup bridge, not necessarily to a mature company’s loan need.

10. What to do with the loan question

The records demonstrate cash-timing pressure and a shrinking buffer, not that a particular loan is necessary or affordable. Do not size borrowing from the August balance, credit limit, 35% receivables scenario or the $988k staff-list break-even. First build a 13-week dated cash forecast: opening available cash + committed collections − actual scheduled cash payments. Required funding is the largest forecast deficit below the chosen minimum cash buffer; serviceability then requires a positive operating contribution after the proposed interest/principal schedule.

Immediate evidence-based review targets: the large Friday-week cash draws; $25,000 transfers in; $26,183.23 returned-deposit/correction debits; $5,668 unmatched Capital One cash payments; other-card cash settlements; and the $334,003.45 unidentified ACH pool. These are concrete reconciliation priorities, not accusations of waste or proof of loss.

11. Source trail and verification

All money is calculated in integer cents from preserved transaction amounts. Scope: 2,069 posted entries Dec–Aug; September adds 32 posted card entries; 32 pending snapshots remain excluded (16 flagged overlaps). Bank and card source extraction controls were checked; this report independently recomputes monthly cash balances, continuity, unique card matching and exhaustive bank bridge totals. Check-image evidence is keyed to stable ID + source + amount; no raw PDFs or check images are published.

Method reference: SBA break-even formula. Sales-dollar break-even uses fixed costs divided by contribution margin; costs must first be separated by behavior.